With Djokovic’s win over Alexander Zverev in the ATP finals overnight, it means that he will meet Dominic Thiem for a place in the final, while Medvedev will face Nadal for the other place in the final.
So who will win? It’s hard to define a clear favorite for either of the semi finals… or even the final. It’s the end of the season and the players are tired and over the last week there have been some shock results.. like Djokovic’s heavy loss to Medvedev.
Nadal vs Medvedev – Nadal always fights for every point as we know, but there is also the extra reason to fight even harder for this title as he has never won it. It seems pretty straight forward that Nadal will win as he has a 3-0 head to head between the two, however in two of the losses, it came down to just a few plays where Nadal got the upper hand. There is no question that it will be a long grinding match between these two. They have both been solid all week, but I would give Nadal the edge, especially if he maintains his position close to the baseline on the low bouncing courts and dictates play as he has done so well this week.
Thiem vs Djokovic – We have seen a steadier competitor in Thiem this year and his US Open result no doubt gave him the validation he needed to prove he has what it takes on the big stage. If Thiem goes out there and serves well, pushes Djokovic back and takes his opportunities then he can definitely win this. He is going to have to take it to Djokovic and take the match away from him as the Joker has already had his average match this week against Medvedev and no doubt will be fine tuned to get every ball back and take any opportunities he can get. Thiem might have the weapons to beat Djokovic, but I think as long as Djokovic plays to his normal high level that he will win this one.
Final …. say things play out as per the rankings…. then we will finish the year with a rematch of the French Open final… where Djokovic will no doubt be out for redemption. He doesn’t really have anything to prove as he has already lifted the trophy many times….. but maybe just the fact that by winning the title it mean that Nadal will still never have won it will motivate him… who knows! That’s why Tennis is so fun to watch…. there is a level of certainty… but also, just like 2020, soo much can change within a short time.